As Christmas approaches, spare a thought for Marko Kolanovic. This time last year, JPMorgan’s chief market strategist was predicting that the S&P 500 index would fall more than 10% by the end of 2024. Instead it is on track to rise by 30%.

Unsurprisingly perhaps, Kolanovic is no longer JPMorgan’s chief market strategist. But it is hard not to feel some sympathy. After all, some very smart market-watchers, including his boss Jamie Dimon, were also very nervous about the markets. “This is the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades,” the JPMorgan chief executive had declared just a few weeks earlier.