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The Bank of England surprised the City yesterday with the revelation that two of its nine senior economists had voted to raise interest-rates at their latest meeting – the first time that the 9-0 unanimity on the current emergency 0.5% base-rate has been broken in three years. Apparently paradoxically, this followed inflation figures that came in unexpectedly low earlier this month. We thought our readers could do with some cheer in the Dog Days of Summer, so we’ve taken HM Treasury’s monthly rundown of City forecasts, and pulled out the 10 banks and consulting firms with the rosiest view of UK economic prospects in 2014 and 2015. We ranked them by 2014 GDP forecast, by Q4 interest-rate prediction, and by their estimates for the unemployment rate at year end, since this may or may not be one of the things that Mark Carney would like us to bear in mind …

In UK macroeconomics, things are finally beginning to get interesting again...

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Fareed Sahloul

BlackRock’s Larry Fink on US tariffs: ‘This isn’t Wall Street versus Main Street’

BlackRock assets hit new high despite ‘uncertainty and anxiety’ over markets

Newton Investment Management lags UK peers on gender pay gap

Trading Places: Barclays hires new M&A boss, Julius Baer restructures again

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Find out who is on the move in the City and beyond this week

HSBC hands Blackburn top risk role as shake-up continues

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The UK lender has given the leading compliance job to a 20-year veteran

Barclays hires Centerview dealmaker Woeber to lead global M&A

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The UK lender has tapped a veteran dealmaker to head up a key area of growth

Once an heir apparent for Larry Fink, Wiedman now tops the list of potential successors to PNC chief Bill Demchak.

PNC Names Former BlackRock Star Mark Wiedman as President

The European Union has a plan to counteract the swathe of tariffs U.S. President Trump is planning to impose on foreign goods, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.

EU Has Plan to Retaliate on U.S. Tariffs, Von der Leyen Says

The Japanese investment firm is entwining its fortunes with a company that expects to lose billions of dollars for years to come, in the hope that it will emerge as the leader in AI.

How Is SoftBank Funding Its Mega Investment in OpenAI? A Lot of Debt

The BlackRock CEO says he wants individuals to have better access to the menu of private and illiquid investments that have long been core holdings of pensions, endowments and other institutions.

Larry Fink Says Regular Americans Need Private Assets Too

The prospect of a radical escalation in the global trade war in the coming days has nearly doubled the probability of a recession in the U.S. economy in the next 12 months to around 35%, according to Goldman Sachs.

Goldman Sachs Lifts U.S. Recession Probability to 35%

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